April 2026
The system is live.
After the early predictability thesis was killed in validation, the system moved to a hedged strategy that adapts as each market resolves. It now runs live on Interactive Brokers and Polymarket, around the clock on AWS, monitored through a real-time dashboard with tiered alarms.
01Live trading system
RunningHedged, adaptive strategy deployed on real capital, fully autonomous, with full per-trade logging for ongoing analysis.
02BTC prediction research
ShippedCalibrated gradient-boosted models on years of high-frequency data. 17 candidate edges discovered and all 17 killed under honest out-of-sample testing — the finding that reshaped the strategy.
03Production trading service
ActiveNautilus-powered execution, a dedicated inference sidecar, durable settlement, and S3/Athena analytics — built to run unattended and scale without a rewrite.
04Knowledge base
ActiveEvery research finding, decision, and killed hypothesis pair-written with AI and captured in a structured, AI-queryable knowledge base.